New research has revealed a stark projection: deaths from extreme heat are set to rise significantly in the coming years, outpacing the expected decrease in cold-related deaths. The study, conducted by European Commission researchers and published in The Lancet Public Health journal, estimates that if climate change is not addressed, an additional 55,000 people in Europe will die annually by 2100 due to extreme heat – a 13.5% increase from the current numbers.
The analysis focused on the impact of a 3°C increase in global warming, which is double the 1.5°C goal set by the Paris Agreement. It highlighted that while currently, the majority of temperature-related deaths in Europe are due to cold weather, extreme heat will become a more lethal challenge in the future, particularly in southern Europe and areas with aging populations. These predictions, based on data from nearly 1,400 regions in 30 countries, indicate a growing number of extremely hot days and highlight the urgent need for targeted policies to protect vulnerable populations.
The study also emphasized the importance of international cooperation to address extreme heat, focusing on vulnerable groups, worker protection, and renewable energy investments to limit warming. Efforts to adapt to climate change have already saved thousands of lives, but more action is needed to prevent further preventable deaths. As extreme heat is also linked to increased health risks beyond mortality, such as miscarriages in women working in extreme heat, it is crucial to address these issues to mitigate the broader impacts on society.
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