China’s failure to meet carbon emissions targets has raised concerns about its ability to achieve carbon neutrality. Despite a 3.4 percent decrease in carbon intensity in 2024, China missed its official target of 3.9 percent and is behind its goal of reducing intensity by 18 percent by 2025. President Xi Jinping has pledged to peak emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
As the world’s top polluter and leader in renewable energy investment, China’s success or failure in meeting these goals will have significant implications for global efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The country’s recent economic growth has led to a surge in energy demand, resulting in a 0.8 percent increase in carbon emissions in 2024.
Despite setbacks, Beijing has made strides in renewable energy production, meeting a significant portion of its energy demand with wind, solar, and hydropower. Government support for clean energy, including the launch of the Emissions Trading Scheme, underscores China’s commitment to transitioning towards a more sustainable economy.
However, challenges remain in transitioning away from coal reliance and implementing structural reforms in the energy sector. Policymakers must prioritize these changes to achieve carbon neutrality by the set deadlines. The CCP’s upcoming carbon emissions targets for 2026-2030 will shape the future direction of both the public and private sectors in China’s efforts towards decarbonization.
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